Tropics Waking Up From Nap
Yes, it's true, the tropics appear to be waking from their nap. It looks as if I might be busy tracking another system for the next week or two, as the new invest, dubbed "90L" by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has organized itself rather quickly this evening, and we could be talking about TD10 tomorrow evening, possibly even Tropical Storm Joyce by Thursday.
90L is now just east of the Winward & Leeward Islands, and is entering an area that is just asking for a tropical invest to reach, as the waters are plenty warm, and to a substantial depth (as they have not been stirred by any other tropical systems this season, other than Ernesto), wind shear is falling and should remain below 10kts for the next 2-3 days, at the least, and the environment surrounding what I believe to be the more dominant center (although there are a few noticable ones) remains moist.
As of tonight, the models are either a) not initializing the system at all or b) don't have a good grip on what's happening with the invest. I believe by Thursday (if the system develops into a depression), we'll have some reliable model runs to help in making some forecasts. Also, by this time, we could have the NHC forecast track available.
Many people may be wondering, "Will this system make it into the Gulf and affect the Gulf coast?". My response is, "Don't even ask!". It is much too early to think about the long-term track, as the NHC hasn't even named the sytem a depression, which is the first step. It needs to be kept in mind that Ernesto formed in this general area, and was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico, but instead moved over Cuba, weakened, and was much weaker and hundreds of miles east of the original forecasted tracks, so saying it would go into the Gulf would be like saying that gas is a reasonable, affordable price where I live ($2.41), and that would be lying.
This is just, in a way, my "intermediate discussion", and I'll try to have a full discussion out by tomorrow evening, with my reflections of the entire Atlantic ocean, as well as 90L (possibly TD10 by then). Thanks for reading and have a great night everybody!
